Android disrupts market
In 2011, Android/Linux smart phones displaced Apple, Nokia and RIM smart phones in the market but they did more than overtake. They pulled away.
Look at the numbers. IDC reports that in 3Q 2011, 118 million smart phones were produced. Apple, Nokia and RIM accounted for only 45.7 million of them. Samsung and HTC accounted for 36.3 million with 175% annual growth rate. The former market leaders were not only overtaken but left in the dust. They could not outperform dozens of newcomers using FLOSS swarming over every region and every niche in the market.
That’s what we should be seeing in the market for PCs generally but competition is stifled by lock-in of OEMs, retailers and businesses. It’s about time that changed. In Q2, the world shipped 91 million notebook/desktop PCs. Change will come but it’s too slow for me. While FLOSS is taking over the mobile space, it will penetrate the monopoly more slowly, one purchase or installation at a time. In Q2 50 million PCs shipped with “7″. A lot of the rest shipped with GNU/Linux or FreeDOS or no OS. I expect a few retailers will experiment with Android/Linux on ARMed PCs, then GNU/Linux on ARMed PCs and finally GNU/Linux on x86/amd64 PCs. It will take a few more years but it will happen. Microsoft’s entry into ARM with “8″ and Microsoft’s current advertising campaign for “7″ shows Microsoft sees it coming. The stalling of PC sales while smart thingies take off shows the market is on the edge of change.
I predict that Microsoft will not be able to grasp/hang on to the fast-moving train that is the mobile ecosystem. One of these days it will come crashing down.
When someone asks about what phone they should get, I always tell them to get an Android as it is the most open device on the market and has plenty of options.
